I gave my thoughts yesterday on how the Deep State is closing in on Donald Trump, forcing him either to comply with their demands or be destroyed. Within minutes of writing that piece came the news that he had fired the Director of the FBI, James Comey. It took a while for me to process the impact that this will have, but now that I have, I believe that his actions mark the beginning of the end of what will turn out to be a very short-lived presidency. Here’s why.

As I mentioned yesterday, many of his supporters were dismayed when he appeared to have capitulated to the demands of the neocon death-cult by attacking Syria without rhyme or reason, when the military that he commands dropped an enormous bomb on Afghanistan just for show, and when he needlessly ramped up tensions on the Korean peninsula. Had he betrayed them, or was he just playing 10D chess (or some other similarly silly explanation that some Trump fans like to kid themselves with)?

My own view is that he was simply attempting to appease the Deep State, believing that by doing their bidding for a time, it would persuade them to back off the whole idiotic Trump / Russia frenzy. In the immediate aftermath of his hissy fit over Syria, that frenzy did indeed die down a little, but as Mr Trump seemed to lose interest in Syria, lo and behold, the Trump / Russia thing started to go ballistic again.

As an aside, for those who have managed to retain their full set of marbles in these absurd times, here’s how I would describe the Trump / Russia thing.

“It’s like watching the village idiot looking for a non-existent needle in an enormous haystack attempting to convince us it really is there by showing us pictures of needles.”

And now the Comey firing. How have Trump’s fans reacted? From what I’ve seen on social media, they have allowed their delight in seeing Mr Comey go to cloud their judgement as to what this really means. They see it as Trump somehow getting back on track with his promise to drain the swamp. That’s sort of understandable, given that Mr Comey was indeed a Swamp Dweller. Not only that, but he was embarrassingly incompetent. As the man charged with investigating the whole “Russia stole our election” cretinism, you’d at least expect him to have had some knowledge of the country he was dealing with. But no.

During a Senate hearing back in March, he was asked by Rep. Jackie Speier if he knew anything about Gazprom. His answer? “I don’t”. Rep. Speier rather hesitatingly pointed out that it’s an oil company. Which it is not. It owns Gazpromneft, which is an oil company, but Gazprom is a gas company. Russia’s biggest gas company in fact. Russia’s biggest company in fact. The world’s biggest gas company in fact. Even I knew that. But the FBI Director in charge with investigating alleged Russian hacking and links to the Trump team didn’t. In fact, it sounded like he’d never heard of the name before.

Many Trump fans have also reacted by mocking the Democrats who were calling for Mr Comey’s head just a while back, and who are now reacting with outrage. What hypocrites and all that. Yes, what hypocrites, and yes they deserve to me mocked for it. But what does that mean in the murky, swampy waters of the Deep State? Nothing whatsoever. They don’t care whether their faux outrage over Comey is unprincipled and hypocritical. They’ll paper over it and ignore it, just like they always do. For pity’s sake have we learned nothing over the past few years. Let me spell it out in capitals:


Think about it. Even if, like me, you think the whole Trump / Russia frenzy is a fake and a fraud and a hoax, by firing the man charged with investigating it, he has just handed the golden opportunity of a lifetime to those who want to bring him down. And they’re going for it, already asking whether this is Trump’s Watergate. They won’t let up. They scent blood. And so far from this being the beginning of Trump draining the swamp, it is the beginning of the end of the Trump presidency.

In addition to all of that, there are three things that convince me Trump will not be President by the end of the year:

  1. He has no real support base in Washington DC. Outside his inner circle, there are few who would support him come what may, even on the Republican side
  2. Talking of his inner circle, he has made a number of foolish errors, including surrounding himself with neocon crazies like HR McMaster. At the same time, he has proved to be a fair-weather friend to those who at some point really did support him (eg. Steve Bannon). Put that together and you have a man who can trust almost nobody, and a man whom almost nobody can trust
  3. He is completely out of his depth, not to mention being utterly impulsive. If anyone is ever to drain the swamp, they will not shout about it before they are elected, but rather just quietly get on and do it, keeping — as the saying goes — “their friends close and their enemies even closer”. Trump has repeatedly proved that he is not remotely qualified for the huge task of swamp draining, but is simply a rash braggart who thought he could run the Whitehouse like a business, and Tweet his way out of every problem.

And so as an armchair spectator, sick to death of the whole business and extremely nervous about what will come next (including the prospect of great civil unrest and/or an avowed neocon in charge), I await the end of the Trump presidency, which I think will most likely come before the end of the year.

5 thoughts on “Has Donald Trump Just Started the Beginning of the End of His Presidency?

  1. Rob, I am very curious to hear your impression of Pence. I’ve known you to classify your conservatives, and I really do not know enough about him, especially considering their is at least a decent probability he will be the next President.

    1. Hi Richard,

      To be honest I really don’t know enough about him to comment very much. However, domestically from what I have observed he seems reasonably socially conservative. But I’ve been far from impressed with his foreign policy stance, in particular his sabre-rattling in South Korea a few weeks ago when he started talking about the US sword being at the ready:


      Quite apart from anything else, his statement seemed to me to go way beyond his station of Vice President. As some have pointed out, not even Dick Chaney (the real President while Mr Bush was pretending) ever used that kind of language, since it would ordinarily be the sole preserve of the Commander-in-Chief.

      But actually that episode did confirm to me that he is basically just another neocon, and that he is probably being quietly groomed to move up a rank soonish, when the insanity of Mr Trump proves too much and the (equally insane) DC establishment decides to remove him (pretty soon I think).

      As an aside, the Korean sabre rattling thing brings to mind a comment you made a couple of weeks or so back, where you wondered if there was any way of sorting the North Korean issue without force.

      Interestingly, South Korea has just elected a new President who has promised he wants dialogue with the North. No idea how genuine he is, whether it will happen, and if it does whether it will alleviate tensions, but it does seem to me to be an eminently more sensible strategy than sending an “armada” and the VP going the SK to talk about the US sword being ready.

      Best wishes,


      1. “Best Wishes” Indeed. I appreciate the insight into developing events. Out of curiosity, did you see the video Pence recorded making a speech to church congregations (apparently played at some) right before the election? I really don’t recall anything outstanding about it, other than it triple-underlined the Pence public image as a churchman.

  2. While I hope your prognosis is too pessimistic (I said “hope”, not think), I believe your analysis of what has transpired heretofore is spot-on. I will defend Trump in one regard: Had he not said “drain the swamp”, he might not have gotten elected. No doubt would be better to be stealthy. But first you have to win. However it ultimately turns out, one positive of the whole Trump phenomenon is that it forced a lot of unmasking; and I’m not talking about surveillance subjects, though it is to me ironic that this term is now commonly in the news. Rather the masks came off the Republican party (faux conservatives), the notion of an objective media (though to many that came off decades ago – all pretense is now gone), and the notion that elections matter. Anyone of goodwill and a room temperature IQ has to see that the winners of elections don’t decide policy. I wonder how many that is?

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